“This is so much more than just a disclosure. There are some really interesting points to take back to the business and change what we do in procurement, site management and more.”
– Sarah Webster, Director of Sustainable Business, Britvic
Revolutionising business governance through the lens of the TCFD framework
climate risks modelled to determine potential financial impact
sites' financial and accounting risks identified through bespoke scenario analysis
Being a soft drinks producer, Britvic is heavily dependent on natural resources, such as fruits, and water, as the key ingredients of its products. Given the increasing magnitude and frequency of adverse physical climate events, natural resources are on the frontline of being exposed to climate-related risks.
Therefore, timely assessment and quantification of climate-related risks is no longer an option but a necessity for Britvic to manage supply chain disruptions and improve its long-term business resilience. It is crucial for Britvic to measure, monitor and adapt to climate-related risks to sustain its business in the future and seize new investment opportunities.
Embedding Climate Risk Governance into Financial Disclosure
Following COP26 in November 2021, there is mounting pressure on companies to be proactive with their reporting in line with Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) recommendations. This is backed by regulatory change in the UK where TCFD recommendations will become a legal requirement for large, listed companies in the reporting year starting April 2022. Its four key elements include; Governance, Strategy, Risk Management, and Metrics and Targets.
From Science-Based Targets to TCFD
In 2019, Carbon Intelligence supported Britvic to set science-based targets, becoming the first UK drinks manufacturer to have an approved target aligned to the 1.5 degree pathway, since then many others have followed. Britvic has committed to reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 50% and Scope 3 emissions by 35% by 2025 (from a 2017 baseline year).
Moving ahead with this partnership, Carbon Intelligence has been supporting Britvic’s consultation process on TCFD reporting, which involved working closely with all business units and departments at nine different Britvic sites spread across four different geographies.
Step by step TCFD process
At the identification phase, Carbon Intelligence conducted tailored interviews with Britvic’s site teams and business units in Brazil, France, Ireland, and Great Britain to identify their current knowledge, understanding and involvement in climate change risk management as well as evaluate their key risks and present an in-depth roadmap on future climate risks they could face. Consistent and transparent engagement and collaboration resulted in cross team buy-in and enabled Britvic to understand how to best navigate through this framework.
Carbon Intelligence first identified climate related risks and opportunities facing Britvic’s sites and scored them as short-term, medium-term and long-term risks accordingly. These scored risks were derived by assessing the following elements:
- Likelihood: The chance of a risk occurring
- Velocity: How rapidly the risk is likely to materialise or an estimated time frame in which the risk might occur
- Financial cost: Identifying the financial cost and impact of the risk
The next stage involved scenario analysis where Carbon Intelligence used an Early, Smooth Transition scenario, Late, Disruptive transition scenario and Business as Usual (BAU) scenario for each risk type to demonstrate how these risks would play out in the future and understand the differing impacts on Britvic and its business strategy.
For this phase, Carbon Intelligence quantified the following three in depth risks and calculated their financial impacts accordingly:
- Crop Yield Change
- Water Consumption
- Customer and Consumer Preference Change
Assessing risks of energy pricing helped Britvic interpret how any future increase in energy costs might impact different business units and increase business resilience to future price shocks. Further, evaluating risks of trends in potential energy outages proved beneficial for Britvic to plan its supply chain and operations well ahead of any unexpected disruptions.
Crop yield and water consumption were recognised as two key physical risks of climate change. To evaluate crop yield change, Carbon Intelligence looked at five key input crops i.e., oranges, apples, passion fruit, sugar beet and sugar cane and identified how climate change will impact the yield of these crops which in turn will impact its pricing. Climate models and future projections were created using climate data, followed by a comprehensive assessment to interlink how climate change will disrupt crop yield, water consumption, business supply chain and investments across Britvic sites.
To reflect the ever-mounting consumer demand for sustainable products, the potential for end-consumers to change their preferences around Britvic’s products and flavour brands was explored. This was done by modelling the risk of loss of Britvic’s market share and revenue under all three scenarios. A similar approach was adopted to help Britvic understand the constantly evolving purchase preference of its trade customers e.g. supermarkets, which are increasingly adopting climate strategies and setting net zero targets.
The TCFD programme has provided Britvic with:
- The understanding and expertise to conduct a responsive climate-risk assessment and integrate this into its business model and planning
- The further development of an effective climate action plan based on scientific data, projection trends and evidence
- The ability to elevate its sustainability and health and well-being credentials and increase customer satisfaction
- The transformation of its corporate governance and how to navigate towards a sustainable and resilient business
The TCFD recommendations provide a best practice approach to assess the actual and potential impacts of climate related risks and opportunities on Britvic’s businesses, strategy, and financial planning.
The Governance and Strategy elements of the project have helped Britvic understand how well the physical and transition climate risks and opportunities are understood and managed throughout its portfolio.
Risk Management provided a more detailed scenario analysis which included modelling the material risks and business impacts, mapping of previous analysis, current projects, and calculating financial impacts of climate risks and opportunities.
The final stage is to quantify the Metrics and Targets Britvic will use to track its climate related risks and opportunities, building on the existing SBTs and adding the specific requirements of TCFD.